Hormuz, Suez, and the World at the Brink
“The Lord reigns; let the peoples tremble! He sits enthroned upon the cherubim; let the earth quake!”— Psalm 99:1 (ESV)
There are moments in history when the ground beneath civilization seems to shift all at once. We are living in one of those moments. Since the coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes of February 28, 2026, the world has watched two of its most critical maritime arteries — the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal — effectively close in tandem. What that means economically is staggering. What it means prophetically deserves sober, watchful, prayerful attention.
Let us walk together through what is happening, what it means for ordinary people around the world, and what we as followers of Christ are called to do when the gates of global commerce begin to shut.
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I. The Two Gates of the World
Geography has always shaped human history, and few geographic facts are as consequential as these: the Strait of Hormuz is just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, yet approximately 20% of all seaborne oil and nearly a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas flows through it daily. There is no meaningful alternative export route for Gulf-state energy producers. When Hormuz closes, the Persian Gulf becomes a lake.
The Suez Canal is a different kind of gate — the hinge between East and West, between Asia’s factories and Europe’s markets. It handles roughly 10–12% of all global seaborne trade. When Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping first began in late 2023, Suez traffic dropped dramatically — container ship transits plummeted from around 2,068 in November 2023 to approximately 877 by October 2024. The hope of a full 2026 recovery died on February 28. Major carriers — Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM — suspended Suez Canal transits again, rerouting their fleets around the Cape of Good Hope. That rerouting adds roughly 6,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 extra days to every Asia-Europe voyage, and extends total journey times to 40 to 50 days.
BY THE NUMBERS: THE TWO CHOKEPOINTS
~20%of global seaborne oil through Hormuz daily
10–12%of all global trade through Suez
6,000 miadded per voyage via Cape of Good Hope
+80%freight rate increase, Shanghai to Rotterdam, 2023–2025
Both gates are now effectively shut simultaneously. What follows is not speculation — it is supply chain mathematics playing out in real time, with profound consequences for every nation on earth.
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II. Energy Prices Spike — and Stay High
When Persian Gulf oil disappears from global markets, the arithmetic is brutal. The conflict has threatened global supplies of oil and natural gas, sparked fertilizer shortages, and disrupted air travel. Iran’s grip on the strategic Strait of Hormuz has shaken markets and prices worldwide. Saudi Arabia — which had been rerouting millions of barrels of crude oil daily through Bab el-Mandeb precisely because Hormuz was effectively closed — now finds that alternate route threatened as well, as the Houthis have announced they are entering the war and positioning to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping.
European natural gas prices surged dramatically, with Dutch TTF gas benchmarks climbing sharply and European gas storage already critically low after a harsh winter season. Asian natural gas prices followed. For homesteaders and farm families across Oklahoma and the American heartland, this means: diesel stays expensive. Propane stays expensive. Everything transported by truck or tractor — which is almost everything you buy — costs more to move to your local store.
“The war has threatened global supplies of oil and natural gas, sparked fertilizer shortages, and disrupted air travel. Iran’s grip on the strategic Strait of Hormuz has shaken markets and prices.”
And fertilizer. Urea and sulfur — the backbone of commercial grain farming — flow through the Persian Gulf in enormous volumes. The region supplies roughly 45% of global sulfur and vast quantities of urea. When the Strait of Hormuz closes, those inputs stop moving. For spring planting in the American Midwest, the timing could hardly be worse. The food security implications are not abstract; they are measured in bushels and dollars per acre, and ultimately in grocery aisle prices for families with no margin to spare.
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III. Shipping and Trade Slow Dramatically
Seaborne transport carries more than 80% of global trade by volume. When two of the world’s primary maritime arteries close simultaneously, the consequences ripple outward in every direction.
Rerouting around Africa absorbs enormous shipping capacity and adds roughly $1 million in fuel costs per voyage. War-risk insurance premiums — which had been a fraction of a percent before the conflict — skyrocketed, and major insurance providers stopped offering war-risk coverage for the Strait of Hormuz entirely, making the economic risk prohibitive for most ship owners regardless of willingness. Freight rates between Shanghai and Rotterdam had already risen 80% compared to pre-crisis levels; the current dual closure will push them higher still.
Aluminum. Plastics. Pharmaceuticals. Electronics. Rubber. Steel. Sugar. Batteries. Auto parts. Every one of these supply chains flows through the Hormuz-Suez corridor. Automobile shipments alone — roughly 20% of global auto trade transits Suez — face major delays. Container ship traffic through Suez fell by some 90% during the 2024 crisis; the current escalation threatens to replicate and exceed that disruption. When those corridors close, shortages follow — not immediately, but inexorably. The pipeline takes weeks to empty, and months to refill.
“There is no new thing under the sun.”— Ecclesiastes 1:9 (KJV)
History confirms what economics predicts. The 1973 oil embargo. The 1979 Iranian Revolution. The 1980 Iran-Iraq War. Each time a major chokepoint was threatened, the ripple effects reshaped markets, governments, and everyday life for ordinary people far removed from the conflict zone. This time is not different in kind — only in scale and simultaneity.
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IV. Economic Pain Spreads Worldwide
No nation is immune, but the burdens fall unevenly — and the most vulnerable suffer first and worst. This has always been the pattern of economic disruption: the powerful have reserves; the poor do not.
South Asia faces the most acute disruption. Qatar and the UAE are primary suppliers of LNG to Pakistan and Bangladesh — nations that already operate near the edge of their energy capacity. A prolonged closure will trigger fast demand destruction: rolling blackouts, industrial shutdowns, and contraction among populations with no buffer.
India — the world’s most populous nation — sources a majority of its LNG and roughly 60% of its oil imports from the Middle East. China, the world’s largest crude importer, has strategic reserves but is far from insulated. Europe faces both an energy crisis and a broader supply chain crunch, with chemical and steel manufacturers already imposing surcharges of up to 30% on electricity-intensive production. The European Central Bank revised growth forecasts downward and paused planned rate reductions.
Egypt’s situation deserves particular attention. The Suez Canal contributes nearly $9.4 billion annually to Egypt’s economy — a nation already strained by debt, a severe foreign currency shortage, and rising food prices. When the canal goes quiet, Egypt’s ability to import wheat and repay creditors weakens simultaneously. The Atlantic Council has warned plainly: the longer the disruption continues, the higher the risk of social unrest. A destabilized Egypt has consequences for the entire Mediterranean basin.
“Approximately one-third of global fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. For spring planting season, the timing could hardly be worse.”
For American families, the picture is more insulated — domestic oil production offers a partial buffer — but oil trades in a global market. No one buys their gasoline in a vacuum. And food prices, driven by fertilizer disruptions and supply chain delays, will pressure household budgets for months regardless of what happens at the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow.
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V. Military Risk and Geopolitical Tension at Extreme Levels
On February 28, 2026, in response to attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, the Houthis threatened to escalate the conflict and resume attacks in the Red Sea. As of March 28, 2026 — one month into the war — they have made good on that threat. The Houthi military wing announced missile launches toward Israeli targets, and the Bab el-Mandeb strait is once again a contested corridor. Roughly 12% of the world’s trade typically passes through Bab el-Mandeb; now Saudi Arabia’s rerouted Gulf oil — flowing west because Hormuz is blocked — faces the same threat from the south.
More than 3,000 people have been killed in the month since hostilities began. About 2,500 U.S. Marines have arrived in the region. The United States and Israel continue to strike Iran, whose retaliatory attacks have targeted Israel and neighboring Gulf Arab states. Israel struck Iran’s nuclear facilities after threatening further escalation. The USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in Croatia for maintenance, its Red Sea deployment complicated by the Houthi threat. Regional powers — including Pakistan — plan diplomatic meetings to discuss how to end the fighting.
This is not a regional skirmish. It is a contest over the physical arteries of the global economy, conducted with missiles, mines, drones, naval warships, and the constant threat of further widening. The intelligence communities of multiple Western nations have warned that escalation risks remain severe.
“Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of birth pains.”— Matthew 24:7–8 (NIV)
I want to be careful here — as I always try to be — not to set dates or claim certainty where Scripture does not. But I want to be equally careful not to look away from what is plainly before us. The convergence of war, economic disruption, food supply stress, and great-power tension is not routine. It is the kind of moment that should drive the Church to her knees.
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VI. Secondary Conflicts and Unrest Almost Certainly Flare
History teaches what economics confirms: prolonged scarcity breeds conflict. The Atlantic Council’s analysis of Egypt’s situation is instructive for the whole region: when canal revenues collapse, foreign currency dries up, wheat imports become harder to fund, bread prices rise, and social unrest follows. Egypt has seen this cycle before; so has much of the developing world.
The Houthis attacked more than 100 merchant vessels between November 2023 and January 2025, sinking multiple ships and killing sailors from nations that had no direct involvement in any Middle Eastern conflict. That pattern — in which a regional war bleeds into broader maritime instability — is now repeating on a larger scale. Iran has declared the Houthi card available in reserve; the Houthi leadership itself is divided between those who want full engagement and those who counsel patience. Either path carries severe global consequences.
Nations dependent on Gulf LNG — Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka — face immediate power and industrial crises. Nations dependent on Gulf fertilizer — which is most of the grain-growing world — face planting-season disruption. Nations dependent on the Suez route for consumer goods face shortages and inflation. Wherever scarcity and economic pain concentrate without resolution, unrest follows. We should expect it, pray against it, and prepare practically where we are able.
“Wherever scarcity and economic pain concentrate without resolution, unrest follows. We should expect it, pray against it, and prepare practically where we are able.”
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VII. What Does the Church Do When the Gates Close?
We do not panic. That is the first and most important thing. The God who holds the stars in their courses is not surprised by geopolitics. He is not anxious about chokepoints or freight rates or the machinations of nations. He reigns. He has always reigned. He will reign when this crisis has passed into history alongside a thousand others that also seemed, in their moment, to be the end of everything.
But we are also not called to be passive or naïve. The same Scripture that commands us not to fear also commands us to be wise, to watch, to prepare, and to serve those around us when systems fail. Joseph stored grain during the years of plenty precisely so that he could feed the hungry during the years of famine. That is stewardship. That is faithfulness. That is the call of the homesteader, the farmer, the neighbor who thinks ahead.
“Go to the ant, you sluggard; consider its ways and be wise! It has no commander, no overseer or ruler, yet it stores its provisions in summer and gathers its food at harvest.”— Proverbs 6:6–8 (NIV)
Practically: stock what you reasonably can. Fertilizer prices for spring planting will be high — plan now. Diesel and propane costs will remain elevated — budget accordingly. Build your local food sources. Support your neighbors. Learn your land. These are not acts of fear; they are acts of faithfulness.
And pray. Pray for the men on those ships in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Pray for the families in Egypt who depend on the canal’s revenues to put bread on their tables. Pray for the leaders of nations who are making decisions in real time with imperfect information and enormous stakes. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem, as Scripture commands — not as a political statement, but as an act of obedience to a God who still keeps His covenants. And pray for the Church to be the Church: present, generous, steady, and pointing to the One who calmed the storm with a word.
The gates of the world may close. The gates of Hell shall not prevail against the Church of the living God. That is not a cliché; it is a promise, sealed in blood, standing through every empire that has ever risen and fallen. We walk by faith, not by sight — and that faith is never more important than in the moments when the sight in front of us is most alarming.
To God be the Glory.
Taylor
✦ A PRAYER FOR THIS HOUR ✦
Lord of Every Nation and Every Sea
Sovereign Lord, You who set the boundaries of the oceans and ordained the paths of the nations — we come before You not in fear, but in reverence and trust. We acknowledge that You are not surprised by what we are witnessing. Every gate that closes in this world is open before You. Every crisis that overwhelms human wisdom is subject to Your word.
We pray for peace — real peace, not merely the absence of war, but the shalom that only You can give. We pray for the leaders of nations: grant them wisdom beyond their own, restraint where escalation beckons, and the humility to seek counsel. We pray for the men and women on ships in contested waters, for families facing food insecurity in vulnerable nations, and for the poor who always bear the heaviest weight when systems fail.
We pray for Your Church in this hour. Keep us from panic and from passivity alike. Make us wise stewards of what You have entrusted to us — our land, our households, our neighbors, our resources. Help us to be the hands of Joseph in a season that may ask much of us. And when the world asks why we are not afraid, let the answer be Your name.
You are the Prince of Peace. You are the King of kings. You reign over the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal and every legislature and every battlefield on this earth. We trust You. We praise You. We run to You.In the Name of Jesus — Hallelujah and Amen.
SOURCES & CITATIONS
- Associated Press / The Philadelphia Inquirer. “Iran-backed Houthis enter the month-old war and could further threaten shipping.” March 28, 2026. inquirer.com
- Fortune. “Iran-backed Houthis claim first missile launch on Israel, raising fears they will attack ships in the Red Sea.” March 28, 2026. fortune.com
- NBC News. “Why the Red Sea could be the next choke point for the global economy.” March 2026. nbcnews.com
- ITV News. “The Houthis, Iran’s allies, threaten another trade route to Europe.” March 10, 2026. itv.com
- Wikipedia. “Red Sea crisis.” Updated March 2026. en.wikipedia.org
- Atlantic Council / Shahira Amin. “Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea add to Egypt’s economic troubles.” atlanticcouncil.org
- Atlantic Council. “A lifeline under threat: Why the Suez Canal’s security matters for the world.” March 2025. atlanticcouncil.org
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Houthi Shipping Attacks: Patterns and Expectations for 2025.” washingtoninstitute.org
- Coface. “Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Why Maritime Trade Is Still Not Smooth Sailing.” coface.com
- The Washington Post. “Egypt is reviving Suez Canal commerce after Houthi attacks hurt traffic.” January 21, 2026. washingtonpost.com
- Holy Bible, English Standard Version (ESV). Psalm 99:1; Matthew 24:7–8; Ecclesiastes 1:9; Proverbs 6:6–8.
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